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DTN Midday Grain Comments     05/10 10:43

   Wheat Futures Deep in the Red Midday Monday

   Corn is 9 to 11 cents lower with new crop 18 to 20 cents lower, soybeans are 
1 to 3 cents lower with new crop 16 to 18 cents higher and wheat 25 to 35 cents 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow up 310 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.08 lower. Interest rate products are mostly higher. Energies are 
narrowly mixed with crude down $0.30. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle 
leading. Precious metals are mixed with gold up $8.40.


   Corn trade is 9 to 11 cents lower upfront at midday Monday with new crop 16 
to 18 cents lower. There is strong spread action and back-month selling after 
widespread rains in much of the Corn Belt, along with new-crop sales of 1.02 
million and cancellations of 280,000 metric tons of old crop, both by China. 
Ethanol margins will be supported by stronger unleaded values after the 
pipeline shutdown, with a boost from corn values if they stay soft. Cooler 
weather short term after rains should give way to warmer and wetter action by 
the end of the week. Brazil continues to struggle with dryness during 
pollination. Corn basis continues to be firm throughout the belt. Weekly export 
inspections were a little softer at 1.707 million metric tons. Planting 
progress are likely to remain well ahead of the five-year average, with 
emergence near average with the colder weather. On the July contract, chart 
resistance is the fresh contact high at $7.35 3/4 with support the 20-day at 


   Soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower upfront, with new crop 17 to 19 cents lower. 
Soybeans are seeing spillover from the weaker corn and wheat action Monday 
morning, but spreads remain solid and other fresh news is lacking overall. Meal 
is flat to $1.00 lower and oil is 0.45 cent to 0.55 cent lower. Planters will 
continue to roll short term with some areas of rain slowing action, but we will 
remain well ahead of normal on the weekly report, with export inspections 
showing seasonal action at 236,918 metric tons. South America should continue 
to see shipping progress short term, while domestic crush will carry U.S. 
basis. On the July soybean chart, support is the 20-day at $14.99, with 
resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $16.18.


   Wheat trade is 25 to 35 cents lower at midday with broad weakness spilling 
over from corn, along with improved short-term weather and U.S. wheat being 
uncompetitive on the world market. KC is at 23-cent discount to Chicago with 
Minneapolis now 28 cents above Chicago with intramonth spreads mixed. Seasonal 
weather on the Plains should boost growth with dry concerns for spring wheat 
staying in place with some pockets of relief. Weekly export inspections were 
range bound at 545,587 metric tons. Weekly crop progress should show steady 
conditions and heading remaining just behind average, with spring wheat 
planting still well ahead of average with emergence nearing 50%. Other Northern 
Hemisphere weather will continue to be watched as well with little fresh news 
on the front. KC July on the chart has support at the recent low of $6.86 3/4 
and resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $7.63.

   David Fiala can be reached at 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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